英文中国智能手机：激进的618折扣预示负面前景

China (PRC) | TechnologyEquity ResearchMay 27, 2025 Edison Lee, CFA *  | Equity Analyst852 3743 8009 | edison.lee@jefferies.comNick Cheng *  | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8750 | nick.cheng@jefferies.comJacky He *  | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8084 | jacky.he@jefferies.comMatt Ma *  | Equity Analyst852 3767 1109 | matt.ma@jefferies.comChina Smartphone: Aggressive 618 DiscountsImply -ve OutlookWe observed an increase in discounts vs last year across both iPhoneand Android. AAPL (Tmall) offered 15%-25% discount (max 31% with govsubsidies) one week earlier than last year, driving 50%+ YoY vol growth (butonly 8% growth vs the first wk of discount in 2024). For Android, discountsfor most flagship models rose double-digit ppt YoY, reflecting our prior viewof high inventories. We believe smartphone outlook remains muted givenlimited innovations.AAPL tried to drive volume growth by launching 618 discounts one week earlier than lastyear. AAPL's Tmall store launched a ~20% discount on iPhone 16P/PM duri