人工智能对产出和通货膨胀的影响

RestrictedThe impact of artificial intelligence on output and inflationIñaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr, Leonardo Gambacorta and Daniel Rees (BIS)Views are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Bank for International Settlements.Restricted2The rise of artificial intelligence⚫AI has the potential to be “the most important general-purpose technology of our era” (Brynjolfsson et al (2023))⚫Recent inroads of generative AI in everyday applications have triggered hopes of widespread efficiency gains▪Productivity gains for workers (Brynjolfsson et al (2023); Noy and Zhang (2023); Peng et al (2023))▪Improvements in sales & employment growth, productivity & innovation for firms (Yang (2022); Czarnitzki et al (2023), Babina et al (2024))⚫By transforming occupational tasks, altering corporate strategies, and affecting production efficiency, AI may have significant consequences for labour markets, firms, and whole industries▪Broad agreement: positive for productivity (1-1.5% range),