AI创新的宏观经济影响

ThemacroeconomiceffectsofAIinnovationAndreaGazzani*FilippoNatoli**BankofItaly12thIMFStatisticalForum–MeasuringtheImplicationsofAIontheEconomyNovember20-21,2024|Washington,DCDisclaimer:TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotrepresentthoseoftheBankofItalyortheEuropeanSystemofCentralBanks.12Introduction•ReleaseofAIchatbotslikeChatGPTspurreddebateontheeconomiceffectsofAI•Empiricalanalysesfocusonsectoral/labormarketimplicationsResearchQuestionWhatarethemacroeconomiceffectsofAIadoption?Viewsarepolarized:→AIasgamechanger(Bresnahan&Trajtenberg1995,Brynjolfssonetal.2023,etc)...→......orlowreturn-highrisktech(Acemoglu,2024,etc)?Literaturereview3Thispaper•StudiesempiricallytheeffectsofAIinnovationinhistoricalperspective•ConstructsanindexofAIintensityinUSinnovationfrom1980to2019usingpatentdata•Estimatesitsimpactsonindustrialproduction,consumerprices,labormarkets,inequalityPreviewoftheresults□AnincreaseintheintensityofAIintechisexpansionaryaspositivetechnologyshocks□Thedownsideisan