AI硬件第二波浪潮2025-2027年

For Reg. AC certification and important disclosures, see the last page(s) of this report.AI Hardware: The Second Wave (2025-2027)11 September 2024Brett Simpson, AnalystArete Research Services LLPbrett.simpson@arete.net+44 (0)20 7959 1320Janco Venter, AnalystArete Research Services LLPJanco.venter@arete.net+27 71216 3220Nam Hyung Kim, AnalystArete Research, LLC nam.kim@arete.net+1 424 228 79142Key Summary TakeawaysWe see a second wave of AI growth coming in the 2025-2027 period. Training clusters are scaling up, while we see AI inference demand layering in as new architectures drive material reduction in cost per token.See slides 3-12.The speed of technology change is frightening in the 2025-2027 period. Back-side power, 102T Ethernet, serdes to 400G, Next generation COWOS, UALink, wafer scale technology, HBM4, use of photonics, etc. See slide 4. We review industry capacity plans through 2027 for both foundry and HBM, and see a fresh round of LTAs ahead. HBM4 pricing likely to jump 50%