欧洲生物制药：全球疫苗入门：预防永远是最好的药物

PRIMER4 June 2025European BiopharmaceuticalsGlobal Vaccines Primer: prevention is always the best medicineJustin Smith+44 20 7762 5899justin.smith@bernsteinsg.comFlorent Cespedes+33 1 42 13 42 49florent.cespedes@bernsteinsg.comCourtney Breen+1 917 344 8407courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.comWoody Polglase+44 207 170 5123woody.polglase@bernsteinsg.comWe expect vaccines to remain the biopharma industry segment with the highest entry barriersand strongest value proposition. We thus project a vaccines industry sales CAGR (24-34e) of4%. In our view the best stock market exposure to this oligopoly is via Sanofi and GSK.Vaccines industry growth: what are the drivers and prospects? We project globalvaccines sales for the oligopoly (GSK, SAN, MRK, PFE, MRNA) of $68bn in 2034 fora CAGR (24-34e) of 4%. Drivers should include global population growth, increasingaccess to healthcare, demographics and rising awareness of the benefits of preventingdiseases. We expect this growth to be low risk as nearly tw