摩根大通-中国房地产：2025全球中国峰会要点

ChinaPropertyGlobalChinaSummit2025Takeaways中国房地产2025全球中国峰会要点AttheJPMGlobalChinaSummitlastweek,wespoketoseveralindustryexperts,agentsanddevelopers,aswellasconductedchannelchecksinChengdu,ChongqingandShanghai.Overall,weseecontinualpolarizationinthepropertymarket,withcoredistrictsintop-tiercitiesstabilizingbutnon-coredistrictsstayingunderpressure.Secondaryprices,however,arestillweakeningevenintop-tiercitieslikeShanghai.Expertsmostlyexpectfurthermarketmoderationuntilyearend,althoughthedeclinewouldbemilderthan2024’s.Tier-1citiesmayteststabilizationthisyear,butexpertsgenerallyexpectmorepolicyeasingisrequiredtoachievethisgoal.Inourview,“strongerpolicysupport”willbedata-dependent,butwhat’scertainisthatthegovernmentisdeterminedtosupportthedownside.OurtoppicksareCRLandandCRMixc,whiletacticallyweseemoreupsideinturnaroundstorieslikeLongfor,JinmaoandCOPH.Belowwesummarizeourtakeawaysfromexpertsattheconference,visitstoChengdu,ChongqingandShanghai,aswellasdiscussionswithdevelopers,KEHoldingsandshoppin