高盛美联储是否落后于降息曲线2024英文版31页

IS THE FED BEHIND THE CURVE? ISSUE 131 | September 3, 2024 | 6:40 PM EDT’’’’’’V’’’’’’’’’’’’’Global Macro ResearchInvestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Just as US inflation concerns moved into the rearview, the labor market started sending worrying signals, with the July jobs report triggering the Sahm rule, raising the question of whether the Fed is behind the curve in cutting rates and the risk of recession. Former regional Fed Presidents Bill Dudley and Rob Kaplan, Sahm rule creator Claudia Sahm, and GS GIR’s David Mericle have varying levels of concern about the labor market, with Dudley most worried about the risk of a negative feedback loop between job losses and reduced spending that would lead to recession, Sahm somewhat concerned, and Kaplan and Mericle less worrie