高盛2025高收益债券市场分析报告走高能否持续及其对风投和投资组合的影响研究报告英文版25页

HIGH BOND YIELDS: HERE TO STAY? ISSUE 135 | February 5, 2025 | 4:50 PM EST%%%%%%Q%%%%%%%%%%%%%Global Macro ResearchInvestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Despite the start of long-awaited central bank easing cycles, G10 bond yields have reset higher in recent months, led by the US. What accounts for this unusual behavior, and will yields remain elevated amid tariff and broader economic developments? PGIM Fixed Income’s Gregory Peters, MIT’s Ricardo Caballero, and GS’ David Mericle and William Marshall express varying levels of sympathy for the drivers of this reset: a reassessment of the inflation/Fed outlook, the neutral rate, and the term premium. While Peters argues that persistently above-target inflation should help support 10y Treasury yields closer to the top end of