高盛2025年欧元区展望报告承压前行英文版18页

We expect 2025 to be another challenging year for the Euro area economy. First,nUS President-elect Trump’s plan to impose tariffs is likely to weigh significantlyon growth, with much of the drag stemming from higher trade policyuncertainty. Second, the negative trade effects are likely to be reinforced bycontinued structural headwinds in the manufacturing sector, including highenergy prices and competitive pressures from China. Third, we expect ongoingfiscal consolidation across the Euro area.That said, we see several reasons for continued growth, rather than a Euro areanrecession. Growth momentum remains modestly positive; consumption is likelyto recover given rising real incomes and elevated savings; and we expect theSouth to show continued resilience compared with the North.We therefore forecast Euro area growth of 0.2% in Q1 and Q2, 0.1% in Q3 andn0.2% in Q4. This results in area-wide growth of 0.8% for 2025, notably belowthe 1.2% consensus. We look for the weakest growth in Germany