高盛2025年全球宏观经济展望报告经济增长积极因素顺风削弱关税影响英文版24页

We expect the second Trump administration to bring higher China and autontariffs, much lower immigration, some fresh tax cuts, and regulatory easing. Ifso, the US economy should grow 2.5% in 2025, outperforming consensusexpectations and other DM economies for the third year in a row. The biggestrisk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard.We have cut our Euro area GDP forecast to a below-consensus 0.8%, reflectingnongoing structural headwinds and a hit from trade policy uncertainty. We havealso shaved our 2025 China GDP forecast to 4.5% because of higher US tariffsthat are only partially offset by easier macro policies. Risks in both Europe andChina are on the downside if tariffs increase beyond our baseline.US core PCE inflation should slow to 2.4% by late 2025, higher than our priornforecast of 2.0% but still benign. Our forecast would rise to around 3% with anacross-the-board tariff of 10%. In the Euro area, we expect core inflation to slowto 2% by