高盛2025全球经济前沿研判DeepSeek微观风险积聚与宏观增益空间的动态博弈英文版11页

In mid-2023 we laid out the case for an AI investment cycle reaching 2% of nannual GDP, where 1) an initial surge in hardware investment necessary to train AI models and run AI queries would ultimately fade as compute costs decline while 2) AI software investment increases steadily over time as end-user adoption increases. This thesis has largely borne out so far, albeit in a more frontloaded manner than we expected. This weekend’s reports that DeepSeek obtained similar AI model performance at na fraction of the cost of existing models raises questions around whether the cost disinflation stage of the AI investment cycle is also arriving sooner than expected, whether large AI investments are sustainable, and whether AI infrastructure companies will be able to capture an outsized revenue share. These are valid questions regarding the distribution of profits, but the macro implications of DeepSeek’s breakthrough are more limited and most likely positive. The main near-term risk to GDP is