高盛2024年欧洲经济分析报告欧元区财政政策持续整顿与债务脱钩英文版11页

Fiscal consolidation in the EMU4 will continue for the next three years. In nGermany, the constitutional Debt Brake is unlikely to be relaxed until at least the German election in September 2025. In France, the government led by PM Barnier promised a primary balance adjustment of a magnitude unseen outside of post-crisis normalisation in 2011 and 2021-22. The Italian Ministry of Finance has promised a faster fiscal consolidation than expectations, taking the country out of the Excessive Deficit Procedure in 2026. In Spain, the difficulties of the ruling coalition to bridge an agreement with the regional parties and approve the 2025 budget is likely to deliver a steady consolidation on the basis of the 2024 three-year plan. Given the broad-based fiscal consolidation, the European fiscal stance will nremain negative until 2027, albeit less than this year, providing a drag on growth at about 0.3pp per annum in our estimate. Fiscal support fueled by the European Recovery Fund remained slightly