高盛2024年欧元区展望报告-逆风减弱英文版16页

2023 has been a mixed year for the Euro area. Initially, the economy showednsurprising resilience to the energy crisis, defying expectations for recession.Growth has disappointed since the spring, however, reflecting ongoing negativeeffects from high gas prices, a large drag from monetary tightening and weakglobal industrial activity. As a result, Euro area growth underperformed the USnotably this year.We expect 2024 to be a better year for the Euro area economy for three reasons.nFirst, we look for growth to pick up as these headwinds diminish. Realdisposable income is set for a notable boost as headline inflation slows sharplyand nominal wage growth remains firm, supporting consumer spending. Thenegative credit drag should recede notably in H1 as the ECB holds rates steady.And we look for manufacturing growth to normalise, even though the upside islimited as the global industrial environment remains mixed.We expect these receding headwinds to more than outweigh a rising fiscal dragnand l