高盛2024年印度宏观经济展望报告-HigherforLonger更长时间内维持高利率市场下的宁静之港英文版20页

Steady growth: In 2024, we expect macro-economic resilience to continue in India amidst steady growth at 6.3% yoy. The year will likely be a tale of two halves: Pre-elections, government spending will likely be the growth driver. Post-elections, we expect investment growth to re-accelerate, especially from the private side. A floor on core inflation: Repeated supply shocks are likely to keep headline inflation above target at 5.1% yoy (average) in 2024. We expect government intervention to keep a lid on food inflation, where possible, in an election year. We expect core inflation to only decline to 4.5% yoy (average) in 2024 from an estimated 5.1% in 2023 given food and oil supply shocks and a steady growth outlook. A “hawkish hold” in a “higher for longer” world: Somewhat elevated inflation relative to target will limit the room for monetary easing — we forecast the RBI to stay on hold until Q4 2024 and then cut only 50bp cumulatively by early 2025. The “higher-for-longer” global scenario a