高盛2024年全球信贷市场展望报告-重回正轨英文版25页

Long duration, neutral credit risk. The end of monetary tightening, declining inflation and still-robust growth will likely allow spreads to remain within the tight end of their recent range. This implies lower carry-driven excess returns vs. 2023, given current valuations, but higher total returns, considering the stronger yield support vs. 2023. Absent funding relief next year, we expect the transition to a higher cost of capital environment will likely involve a further uptick in financial distress and defaults among issuers with over-leveraged and rates-sensitive balance sheets. We think this uptick is, to a large extent, priced into the HY bond market but less so in the leveraged loan market. Thematically, our relative value views are centered on owning left tail risks that we think are oversold as well as markets that have been dislocated for technical reasons. These include banks in the USD IG market, the real estate sector in the EUR IG market, agency MBS, new issue BBB-rated CMB