高盛2024全球市场展望报告-走向更好的平衡英文版18页

We recently laid out our Global Macro Outlook for 2024—The Hard Part is Over. We provide more detail on our Global Markets Outlook here, highlighting as usual 10 core investment themes that drive many of our market views. More detailed outlooks for the individual asset classes are forthcoming. Parking the Plane: Inflation nearing target, no imminent US recession, but1.markets already priced for soft-ish landing.The Great Escape (From a Low-Yield Equilibrium): Real yields on core assets2.mostly back to pre-GFC levels, so a more conventional opportunity set.Loosening the Inflation Constraint: Further disinflation could open the door for3.a weak “Fed put”, especially later in 2024.US Exceptionalism—More on Growth than Inflation: A benign growth4.backdrop in most places, but US looks to be the “surest thing”.The Dark Side of “Higher for Longer”: Higher rates cause ongoing stress for5.some sovereigns and pockets of corporate and consumer sectors.Valuing Duration: Better valuations and a shift f