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simon-kucher.comJoerg TritschlerMartin SlusarczykSantiago WochnerThe wild west of sales forecasting in pharmaceuticalsWhen expectation meets reality ContentsExecutive Summary 3Pharmaceutical companies in search of growth 4Sales forecasting: A cornerstone for decision-makers in pharma 6Comprehensive 5-year analysis of sales forecast discrepancies 7Substantial deviations in pharma sales forecasts 8Exploring the drivers of forecast deviations beyond the numbers 10Insights for future growth in pharma 12Supplementary information (SI) 13References 16Authors 173Executive SummaryThe pharmaceutical industry faces major challenges, as patent exclusivity for around 200 drugs will expire by 2030. The magnitude of these losses of exclusivity can affect up to 79 percent of a firm’s revenue, depending on the portfolio composition of the company in question. To sustain growth amidst declining R&D productivity, leading pharmaceutical companies are increasingly turning to inorganic growth strate