兰德公司2024高级研究项目机构在项目选择过程中如何平衡研究的难度和可行性金发姑娘问题的益处与局限英文版20页

AARON B. FRANK, RYAN ANDREW BROWNHow Advanced Research Project Agencies Pick Their ProgramsThe Benefits and Limits of Goldilocks ProblemsThe U.S. government has increasingly looked to employ Advanced Research Project Agen-cies (ARPAs) to advance scientific knowledge and develop novel technological capabilities in a variety of departmental missions.1 These ARPAs differ from traditional research and development (R&D) organizations in that, by design, their mandate is to fund high-risk, high-reward programs that, if successful, would provide the United States with transformative capa-bilities.2 These organizations—the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the Intel-ligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), the Homeland Security Advanced Research Projects Agency (HSARPA), the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Health (ARPA-H), and Advanced Research Projects Agency-Infrastructure (ARPA-I)—take on scientific and te