通货膨胀冲突与螺旋

Guido Lorenzoni and Ivan WerningNorges Bank/IMF/IMFER Conference - June 2023Inflation: Conflict and SpiralsConflict and spirals•Conflict, disagreement, disappointment central to inflation experience •Tension between aspirations and realizations of relative prices •They are there in our models! A bit hidden: we try to bring them out •Spirals: dynamics of one central relative price W/P •Effects of demand shocks and supply shocks •Inflation as waves of relative price adjustment1. ConflictRelative prices•Inflation and relative prices •Perennial source of misunderstanding •People: “I hate inflation, it erodes my purchasing power!” •Economists: “That’s not really the problem, problem is that with high inflation all prices rise” •Cost is not that your relative price changes, cost is that: money is a bad store of value (Friedman), that all relative prices are a bit off (NK model) •But is naive view really wrong?A network economy•A network of sectors (including labor) •Each sector cares about rela