能源分裂和宏观经济当前和未来的挑战

Energy, fragmentation and the macroeconomy –current and future challengesHilde C. BjørnlandBI Norwegian Business SchoolIMF/NorgesBank Conference: The Future of Macroeconomic Policy, June 15-16, 2023 Oil and the macroeconomy –40 years of ‘oil price-macro’ modelsI.Adverse macroeconomic effects* •Commodity dependence•Source of oil market shocks •Volatility of shocks •Policy responsesII.Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market (persistence)•Coibionand Gorodnichenko(2015, AEJ:Macro), Aastveit, Bjørnland and Cross (2023, REStat)*) see Hamilton (1983, JPE) for seminal paper and Bjørnland (2022, Sintra) for survey.Inflation ‘absent oil’ in the Euro areaCounterfactual for the Euro area, holding commodity prices constant from Q1 2021.Measure the indirect effect of inflation expectationsSource:Aastveit, Bjørnland, Cross (2023, REStat) and Aastveit, Bjørnland, Cross, Kalstad (2023) (NB: Wor