美联储的常规和非常规货币政策对宏观经济的影响

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摘要：

BackgroundHFMPSurprisesStructuralVARResultsConclusionsTheMacroeconomicEffectsoftheFederalReserve’sConventionalandUnconventionalMonetaryPoliciesEricT.SwansonUniversityofCalifornia,IrvineIMFERConferenceTheFutureofMacroeconomicPolicyNorgesBank,OsloJune15,2023BackgroundHFMPSurprisesStructuralVARResultsConclusionsMotivationDuringandaftertheGreatRecession,theFedandothercentralbanksconductedunconventionalmonetarypolicyonalargescaleExtensiveevidencethatforwardguidance,LSAPshadsignificantfinancialmarketeffects(Swanson,2021)ButthereisverylittleevidenceonthemacroeconomiceffectsofthesepoliciesMainproblem:thereareonlyabout8FOMCannouncementsperyear,interestratechangesaroundFOMCannouncementsaretypicallysmall(2–3bp)BackgroundHFMPSurprisesStructuralVARResultsConclusionsThisPaperMeasuresmonetarypolicyinnovationsusinghigh-frequencyinterestratechangesaround:FOMCannouncementspost-FOMCpressconferencesFOMCmeetingminutesreleasesspeeches,testimonybyFedChairspeeches,testimonybyFedViceChairDecomposestheseinnovat

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美联储的常规和非常规货币政策对宏观经济的影响

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