经常账户分散度上升金融一体化还是贸易一体化

RisingCurrentAccountDispersion:FinancialorTradeIntegration?GeorgeAlessandriaYanBaiSooKyungWooUniversityofRochesterJune16,2023DistributionofNetFlows:1970vs20100246Density-1-.50.51Trade Balance/GDP1970-19732010-20131/24WhatExplainstheRiseinInt’lBorrowing/LendingoverTime?Threemainpossibilities:•Morecountry-specificshocks?•Reducedfinancialfrictions(policy&non-policy)?Intertemporalfrictions•Fallinstatictradebarriers?IntratemporalfrictionsAnswer:Itismostlythefallinintratemporaltradebarriers!2/24NetTradeFlowsHasBecomeMoreDispersed.2.3.4.5.6.7Median TRY.02.04.06.08.1.12IQR TBY197019801990200020102020IQR Trade Balance-Y (L)•Nettradeflow:TBY=(X−M)/Y3/24GrossTradeFlowsAlsoHaveRisen.2.3.4.5.6.7Median TRY.02.04.06.08.1.12IQR TBY197019801990200020102020IQR of TBY (L)Median of TRY (R)•Nettradeflow:TBY=(X−M)/Y•Grosstradeflow:TRY=(X+M)/Y3/24NetFlowsControllingforGrossTradeXt−MtYt︸︷︷︸TBY=Xt+MtYt︸︷︷︸TRY×Xt−MtXt+MtFixingtheleveloftradeconstant,TBYcft=X70+M70Y70︸︷︷︸TRYcf×Xt−MtXt+Mt4/24NetFlows“Stable”whenContro