有限的能源供应太阳黑子和货币政策

Limitedenergysupply,sunspots,andmonetarypolicyIMF/NorgesBank/IMFER-OsloNilsGornemann1,SebastianHildebrand2andKeithKuester3June15,20231BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem2UniversityofBonn3UniversityofBonn,CEPR,ECONtributeTheviewsexpressedhereinaretheauthors’.TheydonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheBoardofGovernorsortheFederalReserveSystem.1MotivationEuropehasseenamonumentalchangeintheexternalenvironment•shortagesofimportedgoods,energymostrecently•volatileimport/energypricesShouldthisaffectthewaywethinkaboutmonetarypolicy?Activeorpassiveresponse?2Whatwedo•provideconditionsunderwhichself-fulfillingfluctuationscouldarisefromsupplyconstraintsonaninputfactor(here:energy)•howcanmonetarypolicycanpreventthosefluctuations?•pencil-and-paper•calibratedmodel3NewKeynesiansmallopeneconomyBlanchard/Galí(2009)meetsBilbiie(2021)•heterogeneoushouseholds(two-types)consumegoodsandenergy•producegoodsusinglaborandenergy,nominalrigidities•energyeitherowneddomesticallyorimportedfromForeignWedeviateasrega