国际紧缩时代的美元

TheDollarinanEraofInternationalRetrenchmentRyanChahrourRosenValchevCornellUniversityBostonCollegeIMF/NorgesBank/IMFERConferenceonTheFutureofMacroeconomicPolicyJune15,2023InternationalFragmentation-StylizedView1/22ThispaperCouldinternationalfragmentationchangespecialroleofUSD?•Quantitativetheorythatlinkstradeanddollardominance•multiplesteadystates,uniquedynamics•introducepotentialforregionalheterogeneity•Policytoolsthatchangetradeandfinancingpatterns•tariffs:betweentheUSandChina/orbetweentheEast/West•currencysupports:potentialto“jumpstart”internationalcurrency•Howdotransitionsunfold?Welfareimplications?•Bottomlines•Dollardominanceishardtochange.•Transitioncanbeslow,untilit’snot...2/22ModelModelSummary1.Fourregions•twobigcountries:USandCN•tworegionscomposedofs.o.e.’s:RegionAandRegionB•baseline:perfectsymmetrybetweenUS/CNandbetweenA/B2.Exogenousendowments3.ConsumptionisCESofallcountry’sgoods•home-biasinpreferences4.Tradingfirmsconductallimport/exports•tradingfirmsneedfinancing(letterofcredit)•