不断变化的全球投入产出联系和需求外溢效应

CHANGINGGLOBALINPUT-OUTPUTLINKAGESANDDEMANDSPILLOVERWataruMiyamotoUofHongKongThuyLanNguyenSFFedIMFEconomicReviewSummerConferenceNorgesBank,OsloJune15,2023TheviewsexpressedaresolelytheresponsibilityoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeinterpretedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheBoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,theFederalReserveBankofSanFrancisco,orofanyotherpersonassociatedwiththeFederalReserveSystem.1CHANGINGIOLINKAGES▶Worldinput-outputstructurehaschangedovertime▶Data:WorldInput-OuputTable(1965-2011)▶Changesininternationaltrade▶Changesinsectoralcomposition▶Question:Towhatextentdoeschangingworldinput-output(IO)linkagesaffectinternationalspilloverofdemandchanges?▶Approach:FrameworkbasedonIOanalysis2MAINFINDINGS▶Significantchangesinthestrengthoftransmission▶Foreignvalueaddedincreasesabouttwiceasmuchwith2011IOlinkages▶Keyfortransmissionmagnitude▶IOlinkagesinbothintermediateandfinalgoods▶Demandcomposition▶Implication:relevantforlargeliterature▶Timevaryingtransmission▶Demandcompositionmatters(asoppo