驾驭不确定性采用预测技术实现更好的规划

NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY Embracing Forecasting for Better PlanningChris Shinkle Director of Innovation, SEPWHAT WE’LL COVER TODAY•Reasons we struggle with uncertainty •What is a Monte Carlo forecast? •Demo the Throughput Forecaster •Walk through a real-world example •Discuss assumptions and dependencies •Q/A time •Link to all spreadsheets and examplesIn a 1927 essay, the legendary horror author H.P. Lovecraft wrote that “the oldest and strongest emotion of mankind is fear, and the oldest and strongest kind of fear is fear of the unknown.”- https://elemental.medium.com/science-explains-why-uncertainty-is-so-hard-on-our-brain-6ac75938662- H. P. LovecraftWhat Lovecraft recognized—and decades of psychological research has borne out—is that the human brain is uniquely vulnerable to uncertainty. Uncertainty is so vexing that some people are willing to accept a worse outcome in exchange for uncertainty’s removal.“In people with generalized anxiety disorder, research shows that they’re more li