不完美的系统信息导致数字孪生的不确定性

Uncertainty in digital twins from imperfect system informationNathan Urban nurban@bnl.gov Applied Mathematics, Computing & Data Sciences Brookhaven National Laboratory September 17, 2024BNLWhat is a digital twin?•For the purposes of this talk: •A predictive computational model of a specific, real-world system •Can be physical simulation, AI, anything else •Incorporates decision making (control, planning, design optimization, …) •Automatically “ingests" data about the system and updates its representation of reality, following these decisions •Learn → Predict → Act → Learn → … •Beyond this, I am not going to open the terminology can of worms!What is a predictive digital twin, computationally?•A mechanistic (“physical”) simulation •Constructed to emulate a specific system •Initialized with data (state estimation), or “tuned” to data (parameter estimation) •A data-driven model (usually statistical/machine learning) •Data as inputs to a prediction (“state estimation”), or trained to data (“p