2025年黄金年中展望

Dow gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025 Downhill or second wind? gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025 02 Contents Downhill or second wind? 3 One for the record books 4 What to expect in H2 5 Consensus expectations: continued normalisation 5 Bull case: deteriorating conditions 6 Bear case: risk resolution 6 Conclusion 7 gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025 03 Gold has continued its record-setting pace, rising 26% in US dollar terms in the first half of 2025 – and reaching double-digit returns across currencies (Table 1, p5). A combination of a weaker US dollar, rangebound rates and a highly uncertain geoeconomic environment has resulted in strong investment demand. As we look forward, one of the questions investors continue to ask is whether gold has reached a peak or has enough fuel to push higher. Using our Gold Valuation Framework, we analyse what current market expectations imply for gold’s performance in the second half of 2025, as well as the drivers that co